A global pandemic persisting over at least two years would result in wide-spread starvation in the United States. According to a study published in the Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, any event causing at least 25 percent labor absenteeism is likely to seriously disrupt the food supply chain.
Based on mathematical studies of the food production-to-distribution network, the authors conclude, "In the case of a pandemic, worker absenteeism may cause multiple points of failure within the food and agriculture system itself or in the interdependent systems that the food and agriculture system relies upon to function... This study found that the USA’s food system is not resilient against the expected level of worker absenteeism (20–40 %) during a pandemic."
Last year I facilitated a private-public exercise of a global pandemic's impact on the United States. That process anticipated many of the study's findings, especially in regard to labor shortage impact on trucking. The exercise also exposed a food system vulnerability not discussed in the paper. In one simulation, hoarding caused the food supply chain in a multi-state region to collapse almost two weeks before the first confirmed case of the disease.
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