6/26

As I write this Hurricane Matthew has just begun to move up Florida's Atlantic coast.  The map on the right shows projected wind speeds.  Purple indicates 100 percent probability of wind speeds above 40 miles per hour.  Gusts up to 107 MPH have been reported at several on-shore locations.

The left-side map shows grocery distribution centers for roughly 80 percent of the market in Central to South Florida and about 60-70 percent of North Florida.  I-95 is the obvious major link between supply and demand. The road network is sparse in the middle of the peninsula.

The hurricane just missed Miami and Ft. Lauderdale. As a result, supply capacity in Metro Miami will continue to be available post-disaster.  There are also significant sources of capacity in the Tampa/Lakeland corridor that should experience minimal disruption.

A Category 4 or worse storm shearing up the I-95 corridor from Miami to Jacksonville has long been a nightmare scenario.  Matthew has been a Cat-3 that began its roll north of the densest population concentration.  Moreover, so far the eyewall and has remained just enough off-shore to spare the coast the worst winds.

A 7-to-11 foot storm surge is currently forecast for Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to the Edisto Beach, South Carolina between Friday night and late Saturday.

Not a worst case (yet), but plenty bad.