6/26

Last year I talked to several big grocery distributors serving dense urban areas in the United States.  I wondered what might be available to deliver to survivors of a catastrophic event: lets say a 7.0 plus earthquake followed by a long-term grid outage.

I was surprised.  Much more is on-hand than I had guessed.

Individual companies are understandably cautious with detailed information regarding volumes.  But above is what three big providers in a top-five urban area told me they had on-hand for a bit more than 2000 shelf-stable products (e.g. canned tuna, peanut butter, ramen).

The "projected ounces needed" is what the nearby principal jurisdiction estimated would be needed per day to serve 300,000 survivors.

So... not all of the shelf-stable products will survive the extreme event and 300,000 could be a serious under-estimate of need.  But still, 600 million ounces is a good start.

Until discovering this mother-lode of shelf-stable products close-at-hand, the local jurisdiction did not see how all the king's horses and all the king's men could ever secure that many calories in time.

Now the worry has shifted some from content to movement.  While the grocery distributors say the stuff will be available, they are not at all confident regarding their own ability to distribute, deliver, and allocate. Neither is the public sector.  But at least the problem is now better targeted.

All of this in more is given detailed attention in a new report: The Role of Groceries in Responding to Catastrophes.