6/26

In late November I was invited to Berlin to discuss food delivery in disasters.  There were eleven us from four different nations and several Germans.  

About eight years ago I began wondering -- worrying -- about the resilience of supply chains in major events: huge hurricanes, 7.0 plus earthquakes, pandemics and such.

Short of wide-area worst cases, I consider most contemporary supply chains to be self-healing. But I was not nearly as self-assured if and when the worst hazards involve the densest cities.

It seemed plausible to me that a combination of Just-In-Time disciplines, densities over 3000 persons per square mile, and increasing concentration at the distribution level could produce systemic fragility, especially when the electrical grid and telecommunications are out for several weeks.

So... if was especially interesting to meet in Berlin with others who have been looking at similar issues. We were a diverse bunch with varied experiences.  Our German hosts chose us partially to represent a diversity of views.  So we were all surprised to largely agree on the following outcomes:

1. Food supply vulnerabilities increase on the edge of demand and supply networks, especially when a dense population node (vertex) emerges at significant distance from other dense nodes (vertices). For example, Los Angeles is more vulnerable than New York City by virtue of the densities and distance of surrounding networks (among other reasons). 

2. Especially because of finding number 1, there is strategic value in identifying/ engaging sources of distribution capacity (contra retail capability) to assess and mitigate supply vulnerabilities before and during an extreme event. The distance and linkages and potential throughput of these system elements can reduce or increase vulnerability. 

3. There are crucial strategic and operational differences between urban (dense) and non-urban (non-dense) contexts in terms of food supply vulnerabilities. In both contexts, distance seriously complicates food supply resilience. But as density increases the impact of distance can be multiplied.

4. Supplying food to populations in transit (e.g evacuees departing or refugees flowing or emergency responders arriving) can be especially complicated. Distance and density are joined by velocity.

This interplay of density, distance, and velocity has been on my mind for awhile. But I had never before made a connection between my work in supply chain resilience and mass evacuation.

There will be an official report next year and I do not want to preempt it.  These are the shared take-aways I heard.  Others may have heard something a bit different.  

But to have entirely independent efforts reporting out findings that seem to corroborate my own findings has been very encouraging.  

Just-In-Time is not, per se, a source of greater fragility. A densely overlapping JIT network can, depending on its structure, be especially resilient.  But there are reasons to be concerned by islands of demand and supply that do not feature multiple connections with similar-sized proximate networks. The more dense the demand on such "islands", the more structural vulnerability.